Unsurprisingly there’s been much talk about a Hung Parliament in the last few days and even the months preceding it. But, when it comes to majorities, what is the actual number needed and how do the numbers stack up?
The first thing to note is that the “magic number” is half the house, +1 for a working majority. So with 650 members, you theoretically need at least 326 MPs for a working majority, but as many of my compatriots have already pointed out, that’s not exactly true. The first people to discount are the Speaker & his 3 Deputy Speakers, who are entirely non-partisan. That brings the number of members down to 646, meaning you need 324 MPs for a working majority. Then of course there’s Sinn Fein, who won’t swear the oath needed to take up their seats, so their 5 seats are also out of play. That brings the total number of MPs in play down to just 641 and the total number needed for a working majority down to 321.
So, that established, how do the “deals” stack up? First, lets apportion people who are in strong electoral alliances together hence:
Tory = 306 (15 short)*
Labour/SDLP =261 (60 short)
Lib Dem / Alliance = 58 (Way short)
*Whilst the DUP are very close to the Tories and often vote with them, they are not, to my knowledge, in an electoral alliance yet and hence have not been included in their numbers. The DUP would put the Tories on 314.
Tory/Lib Dem Coalition (w/ DUP)
This would provide the clearest majority of all three, giving the Tories 372 seats and a working majority of 51 seats. However, the fact is, with the Tories & DUP on one side, it is likely that the Right Wings of both parties, which are larger would end up outweighing the progressive side of the Tories and of course the Lib Dems and would result in us implementing much of what we want. Also, I can’t really see the Tories going further than AV, if that’s the only thing on the table so far and if they don’t, I can’t see the Parliamentary Party nor the Federal Exec giving the deal 75% approval.
Lib Dem / Labour Deal
Taking Labour, the Lib Dems, the SDLP and the Alliance, this deal would be 2 votes shy of a working majority. The Greens are fairly closely aligned on social issues so Caroline Lucas might well come on board in return for a couple of their “Greener” policies that the others agree with, leaving the alliance 1 short of a majority. That would mean that the coalition would either have to govern as a minority, with the Nationalists backing them on an issue by issue basis, or if this alliance could persuade Sylvia Hermon (Independent) to come on board then we’d be looking at a working majority. Just.
Its certainly doable and that would enable a coalition without the Lib Dems having to make a deal with Plaid, something I’d be willing to accept. It is also worth noting that on most issues, the Lib Dems and Plaid agree, so we vote together fairly often anyway. A more proportional system would potentially get closer to the table with this. AV+ would definitely be on the table and STV might even be, even if the Labour Party is only agreeing because it would curb the power of the Tories!
Rainbow/Progressive Alliance
This would be a formal coalition between the parties in the Lib/Lab pact and the Nationalists. Based on Labour’s refusal to work with the SNP, this seems fairly unlikely, but were Plaid Cymru to move for a formal coalition, we would be in working majority territory. The Lib Dems might even support them on a redress of the Barnett Formula, which without the possibility of Scotland being disadvantaged and the SNP blocking it hoves into view pretty prominently, although Labour would get hammered in Scotland, so it’s even stevens on that one. Certainly it is a possibility and from my point of view a deal with Plaid might even be, dare I say it, a necessary evil.
As I think the maths shows, these deals are doable, especially the so called Lib/Lab Pact or indeed even a Progressive Alliance. But, time will tell and I suspect over the next few days it all gets a little interesting.
- Greg Foster
PS: I believe this is the point where people tell me if we back X I’ll never vote for you (the Lib Dems) again…..
Nice article.
It might be worth noting that the Speaker and Deputy Speakers have to be taken from somewhere (usually 2 from Govt., 2 from opposition) so if we are taking them out of the equation, the numbers for each possible coalition would likely be two lower.
Being on the “left” of the Lib Dems, I’d definitely prefer a coalition with Labour, and other parties for a stronger government.
I doubt if any small party would vote against a Queen’s speech or confidence motion & since they would all benefit from PR would support that. Such a minority government would not get lots of stuff through but so what – look at Scotland. After PR was achieved they could go to the country knowing that together they were likely to achieve a majority anyway.
So after all that Ceredigion got a Tory MP…
Let’s hope that the Liberals have gained enough concessions to sweeten the pill of Tory rule – which they’ve hoisted upon us. At the moment I’m giving Clegg the benefit of the doubt that he hasn’t simply been wooed by a promise of a cabinet seat. If that isn’t the case, the people of Ceredigion will not forgive the Lib Dems for their betrayal.
I doubt the Parliamentary Party and the FEC would have given near unanimous approval based on only Clegg getting Deputy PM. Neither of us have yet to see the full deal, hence I’m reserving a cautious judgement until I’ve seen that. I’m hoping for at least some degree of the £10,000 tax, something that would massively aid Ceredigion….. Might also be able to use this position to pressure the WAG on business rates…. Because businesses in Ceredigion are getting screwed to the wall by the revaluation. I’m also hearing rumours of an agreement on the Lords being elected by PR, that’d be rather good……
Also Mark is still a Lib Dem, it’s a coalition not a fricking electoral alliance! There has still not been a Tory in Ceredigion since 1868. End of the day, which would you prefer, a barely restrained Tory Party running riot in government, or the Lib Dems aiding their progressive wing to try and bring about better governance and a good deal for Britain!
But they sold out on PR for ministerial jobs. We have a right to a referendum on whether we want a democratic electoral ststem.
We don’t yet know what the terms of the coalition are. Heck we don’t even know the shape of the Cabinet yet! I’m reserving judgement until then.
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“Might also be able to use this position to pressure the WAG on business rates…. Because businesses in Ceredigion are getting screwed to the wall by the revaluation. ”
Business rate revaluation is not devolved to the Assembly it is a Westminster issue.
The part of business rates devolved to the Assembly is the Rate Multiplier. Which, at 40.9, is at its lowest ever rate in Wales.
Rate revaluation is a funny old thing eh. If its thought that people can score political points its a WAG issue, if not, its a Westminster issue. Not the first time I’ve seen that argument either. Don’t dodge it, it needs both the WAG and Westminster to work together on it and as far as I can tell, Westminster is not the one dragging its heels over business rates, just look at England, that’s all you need to know that.
And however you frame it, businesses in Ceredigion are being mauled by the rate revaluation. One of the biggest issues on the doorstep that was. A large number of businessmen and women have seen their rates skyrocket as a result of the revaluation.