Putting aside for a moment, the arguments for and against the various forms, hybrids & systems that are currently being thrown about the Tuition Fees debate, how will the maths of the issue actually break down in Parliament should a rise in Tuition Fees come to a vote?
Firstly, let us consider if only English MPs were to vote on the issue of Tuition Fees, which is an unwise position for all concerned based on reasons I’ll delve farther into later on in this article. But firstly, the tally as it stands in England:
Con: 297 Lab: 193 LD: 44 Green: 1 Speaker/Deputies: 4This maths, essentially hands the Tories a free reign to do whatever they like. Should only English MPs vote on the issue. Even if every Lib Dem MP, even government ministers were to rebel, the noes would still be 59 votes short of victory. Now, I have issues with the idea that only English MPs would vote on this issue, because as we know many Lib Dem rebels will come from Scotland & Wales and the Labour Party will likely be whipped into voting against under their new leader. The Nationalists will also probably vote against, although as it is an English only issue, there’s no guarantee of that. It’s not like the LibDems or Labour could offer them anything to vote against, so we’d be relying on them standing up for English students. Although perhaps, if only to try & stave off pressures to raise fees in England and Wales, they may join us.
The next scenario is much more plausible, wherein the two major parties whip their national parties into voting either way and the Lib Dems across the country rebel (based on NUS’s information, at least 30 rebellions are expected at present) also joining these are the Northern Ireland allies of the Labour Party & Liberal Democrats, but none of the Nationalists and “non-aligned” Irish parties get involved (with obviously, Sinn Fein abstaining).
Con: 306 Lab(+SDLP): 261 Lib(+Alliance): 31 Green: 1 Speaker/Deputies: 4Using this scenario & the information provided to the Independent, which is the most information I have access to at the present moment as to voting intention, I’m able to build this picture, given that Cabinet Ministers & PPS’s will probably follow the coalition agreement and abstain, that takes 18 Lib Dem MPs out of the running. Discounting the Nationalists, Other Irish Parties (and independents) & the Speaker & Deputies (Because they don’t vote), 45 MPs in total, who under this scenario would abstain, there are then 604 in play.
This puts the vote at 302 For (with 4 Tory MPs defecting) and 297 against. But this scenario still leaves 9 Lib Dem MPs unaccounted for. If five or more of these join the against Lobby, a tuition fee rise would be defeated. If four or less of these were not to cross the floor, then we’d have a Tuition Fee Rise.
My third scenario, posits that all those MPs in Parliament who are opposed to a tuition fee rise were to vote against it, but with Lib Dem MPs & PPS’s still abstaining. This would put the Nationalists (9 MPs) in the Against column, as well as the DUP (whose party policy is at least nominally against fees) (8 MPs). For the purpose of this scenario we’re placing Sinn Fein, the Speaker/Deputies & the Independent (Sylvia Hermon, because I don’t know where she stands on the issue) in the Abstain column along with the Lib Dems in Government. I shan’t recount the numbers again, but that would essentially add another 17 MPs to the against column, with 28 outside of consideration, putting 622 MPs into play. Again, as with before, the For column is filled with 302 MPs, this time however, the Against column, being bolstered by 17 MPs from other parties placing them on 314 MPs, effectively defeating the motion.
The final scenario is that of either the DUP or Nationalists being tempted to the For column in return for some level of benefit, what that would entail would depend on the offer, but if either the DUP of the Nationalists were to be drawn away, the vote would be lost, by between 4-6 votes. This could however, be made up by the 9 unaccounted for Lib Dem MPs if sufficient of them could swing the vote back in their favour.
To conclude, should a rise in Tuition Fees come to Parliament the vote on it will literally be on a knife’s edge. If just a handful of MPs decide not to rebel, or just not to vote, or if a handful are tempted to vote for for some goodies, the vote could be lost. This reality does however make me more confident that Vince Cable and his team at BIS will find an alternative solution to raising Tuition Fees, a very dangerous decision which could lead to an exceptionally embarrassing defeat for the Coalition. This much is certain however. It’s going to be a proper West Wing style drama over the period until any vote on student funding is brought to the House.
-Greg Foster
let’s not forget that tuition fees for English Students came in on the back of Scottish and Welsh Labour MP’s against a majority of English MP’s voting against.
It’s possible that any rise could do so again. They’ll have much to answer for if it does….
The article, though very interesting, overlooks the most essential element in our present parliamentary situation. The Liberal -Democrat MPs will vote whichever way their leadership directs them despite whatever promises might have been pledged in the LD Manifesto and despite whatever principles they have professed to hold. The preservation of the coalition, specifically the positions of power such LD members as Clegg, Huhne and Cable have come to occupy, is now the one and only ‘principle’ in operation within the LD Parliamentary party. There is now nothing they will not do, there is now no argument they will not put forward, no twist of interpretation they will not indulge in, to stick in power. Nothing tastes so sweet as power. And the deprivation of that taste for the past 80 or more years makes it so sweet, it is utterly intoxicating. Huhne, Clegg, Cable, they are as high as kites on the drug. The Tory-Lib Dem coalition will endure, not until the Lib Dem MPs rebel on something which they will not, but only until Tory backbench MPs rebel on something. Which is unlikely. We are looking at a straight run until 2015. Unless the Labour Party can mount a convincing counter argument and engage the English voter in opposition. I say ‘English voter’ because that is where it really matters . Now what are the chances of that?
Yours sincerely,
Michael Knowles
The NUS already has confirmations from 20 Lib Dem MPs that they will vote against any rise (including Ceredigion MP, Mark Williams) and indications from 10 more that they will do the same. Presuming those in government (ministers & PPS) abstain, that still puts another 9 potential rebels in play.
I think you’re overestimating the power of the Lib Dem whips. And underestimating our MPs respect for both party members / voters & supporters and their sense of decency & honesty.
You say, of some MPs, “we’d be relying on them standing up for English students”. This, I think, goes to the heart of the constitutional anomaly we have been landed with. It is not the job of UK MPs, elected to the UK parliament, to stand up for English anything. It is the UK to which they owe their duty. For as long as Scotland has a parliament to stand up for Scottish interests, so long do we need an English parliament to stand up for English interests. Before then, who speaks for England?
With Higher Education devolved to Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland, it is only English students that will be affected directly by this vote. There are however large numbers of English students studying in the other three nations of the United Kingdom, hence producing a slightly unusual crossover of MPs responsibilities. I do concur though, we do need to try & resolve the West Lothian Question as soon as possible.
OK, but it’s more that the English Question needs to be answered. Solving the West Lothian Question only decides who can vote on English policy, which would still be brought forward by the British government. The Scottish government decides policy for devolved matters for Scotland. English policy should be brought forward by an English government, not the British government.
One proposed solution to the West Lothian Question is a or more than one devolved assembly in England / English Regions, with the HoC then forming itself along the lines of the US Senate. But that is only one solution, there are others out there.
Education is a Devolved matter so only English constituency MPs should vote on this matter other MPs should mind their own business, English students are already suffering from past interference by non English MPs.
There is no popular support for regions, which would mean the dismemberment of England. In any case, they would not provide a national forum, so England would still not be equal to Scotland, Wales, and NI who do have national forums. Again, there would be no one to speak for England.
If you’d not gone into a coalition you could have had this fun on every vote…
If we’d not gone into coalition the Tories would have already called & likely won a snap election earlier in the month and we sailing through with a tuition fee rise.
And the solution of having English regions will bring the idea of England as a nation to an end. Now where do I remember a similar statement being made? By none other than Charles Kennedy former leader of the LibDems, of course it is LibDem policy to break England into regions.
Some years ago the Campaign for an English Parliament wrote to every NUS representative in Britain, outling the increase in tuition fees would only affect students studying in England and English students studying in Wales and Scotland, receiving only a handful of replies mostly from Scotland, it is time the NUS representatives in England decided to name themselves the NUS England and take thier case to the Govt.
Okay, to those of you querying the West Lothian Question, I was deliberately providing a poor answer because I don’t believe this comment thread is the most appropriate venue for what is a very complex & interesting debate. I’ll blog on in later in the week (probably tomorrow or Wednesday) and deal with that in more detail, because it is a serious issue that deserves a full blog post about it. So please, check back and comment when it’s up.
Greg, thanks for the reply. The situation is of course not helped when the issue of tuition fees arises and the media (just watched ITV News) and they report the issue without explaining the rise in fees relates to England only.
Definitely not helped, it’s an oversight that could be corrected with about 10 seconds of dialogue, yet they never do.
Time for a bit of lateral thinking. The Reform Bill is to the Tories what tuition fees are to the Lib Dems: an issue where open rebellion is a distinct possibility. A vote on the Reform Bill seems likely to precede a vote on tuition fees, and the outcome of the former may well influence what the Lib Dems decide to do about the latter. A ‘managed’ backbench rebellion on both issues could actually strengthen the coalition, by sending out a message that it can bend without breaking and that each party still has a mind of its own. Flawed as it undoubtedly is (and show me a government that isn’t), a strong coalition is better than a weak one.